FAO report: Wheat production to increase worldwide this year, with the help of India, paddy to also break records
New Delhi| Worldwide wheat production is expected to increase to 796 million tonnes this year, about one percent more than in 2024. Wheat yields may increase in the EU, especially France and Germany, as sowing area in these areas is likely to increase. However, production may be adversely affected due to drought in Eastern Europe and heavy rains in Western Europe. Wheat area is also expected to increase in the US, but yields may decline marginally due to winter drought.
According to the report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), positive signs are also being received regarding paddy production. Global paddy production could reach a record level of 543 million tonnes in 2024-25. This increase will be mainly due to better harvest in India and favorable weather conditions in Cambodia and Myanmar.
The organization has raised its global grain production forecast to 2842 million tons, slightly higher than in 2023. At the same time, total consumption of cereals is likely to reach 2867 million tonnes in 2024-25, increasing by one per cent. This increase may be mainly due to increasing demand for rice. Wheat consumption, on the other hand, is forecast to remain stable. Although a slight decline in the use of wheat as food is possible, its use in factories, especially in China, may increase.
Global grain storage expected to decline
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that global grain reserves could decline by 1.9 per cent to 869.3 million tons in 2025. However, this decline can be partially offset by increased storage in Russia and Ukraine. The stock-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 29.9 per cent, but it is still considered satisfactory. Global trade is also expected to shrink, as FAO cuts its forecast to 484.2 million tones, down 5.6 per cent on the previous year. The reason for this is the changes in exports.
Area wise mixed situation
Production could be affected by lower rainfall in North Africa, while crop production is expected to improve with better rainfall following the 2024 decline in Southern Africa. Wheat production may increase in East Asia due to better sowing and favorable weather, but wheat production may remain lower than the average of the last five years due to less rainfall in Near East Asia. Grain sowing in Mexico may decrease due to dry weather in Central America and the Caribbean. A good harvest in Brazil is likely to keep total output above average.
Food crisis in 45 countries
The world is in a state of serious food crisis due to conflicts and insecurity. There is a famine-like situation especially in Gaza and Sudan. 45 countries may be in need of food aid. Among them, there are 33 countries in Africa, 9 in Asia, two in South America and the Caribbean and one in Europe. The organization warns that these areas continue to have the highest levels of food insecurity (IPC phase-5). Integrated Phase Classification is an internationally recognized system for assessing acute food insecurity. This is the most severe phase of the acute food insecurity scale, where two or more persons or four or more children per 10,000 people per day may die.
