Biz Updates: GDP target achievable if crude oil prices remain below $70; Finance Ministry statement on growth rate

New Delhi| If crude oil prices remain below $70 a barrel despite global disruptions caused by new U.S. tariffs, India could achieve its projected growth target of 6.3 percent to 6.8 percent for the current fiscal year, the finance ministry says. This comment has come at a time when the trade war that started with US President Donald Trump imposing tariffs has shaken global markets. Some economists have said that tariffs could slow India’s growth rate to 0.40 per cent in the current financial year and could have a negative impact on sectors like India’s diamond industry. The region sends more than a third of its exports to the US, putting thousands of jobs at risk. However, a second Finance Ministry official said the tariff announcements will not overshadow India’s key fiscal parameters.

Exports to the US could drop by $5.76 billion as tariffs rise
India’s exports to the U.S. from sectors such as marine goods, gold, electrical and electronics are expected to fall by $5.76 billion (6.41 percent) this year due to the increase in U.S. tariffs. According to GTRI, however, India’s competitive position in select product segments may be helpful in offsetting some of the losses. According to the report, sectors where slight gains can be seen include textiles, apparel, ceramic products and pharmaceuticals. The U.S. has announced an additional 26 percent duty, excluding pharma, semiconductors and some energy items, starting April 9. In 2024, India exported $89.81 billion to the US. According to the report, many major product groups may decline. Fish exports could fall by 20.2 per cent.

Private investment in real estate declined by three percent
Total private investment in real estate declined by three percent to $3.7 billion in 2024-25 due to lower investment in buildings with offices. According to Anarock, investment has been continuously declining for the last five years. In 2021, it was $6.4 billion, which has now decreased by 43 percent.

House sales will increase by 4% in 2025-26
Rating agency ICRA said, a modest one to four percent increase in house sales is possible in the current financial year 2025-26. At the same time, the new offer of houses in seven major cities of the country may increase by six to nine percent. During this period, the average selling price is estimated at three to five percent.

Seven lakh fine on Reliance Securities
SEBI has imposed a fine of Rs 7 lakh on Reliance Securities for violation of rules. This amount will have to be paid by the company in 45 days. SEBI had investigated Reliance between 2022 and 2023. A case of violation of rules came to light in this.

Coffee Day missed payment of Rs 425.3 crore
Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd. has defaulted 425.38 crore on payment of interest and principal amount on loans taken as NCDs and NCRPS from banks, financial institutions and unlisted debt securities till March 31, 2025.The delay in granting interest amount and repayment of principal amount is due to cash crunch, the company said. According to the company, due to default in repayment of interest and principal, the lenders have sent him notices to repay the loan and have also started the legal process.

Center will get Rs 21.9 tax on one liter petrol
The total weight of taxes imposed by the central government on petrol has increased from Rs 19.9 per liter to Rs 21.9 after the excise duty was increased by two rupees. It also includes Rs 1.40 per litre base excise duty, Rs 13 special additional excise duty, Rs 2.50 agricultural cess and Rs 5 road and infrastructure cess. Similarly, the total tax on diesel has increased from Rs 15.80 per litre to Rs 17.80.

Excise duty was increased 9 times in two years
Between November, 2014 to January, 2016, excise duty on petrol and diesel was increased nine times to reduce the profit to companies from falling crude oil prices. During this period, the duty on petrol was increased by Rs 11.77 and on diesel by Rs 13.47 per litre. This doubled the government’s excise collection from 99,000 crore in 2014-15 to 2,42,000 crore in 2016-17.