Haryana vote counting begins with high stakes for Major Parties

BJP vs Congress: A Decade of Rivalry

The BJP, which has been in power in Haryana for the past ten years, is seeking a hat-trick of victories. However, it faces challenges in the form of anti-incumbency, farmers’ discontent, unemployment, and internal rifts within the party. On the other hand, the Congress is striving for a comeback after being in the opposition for two consecutive terms, with former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda leading a spirited campaign.

Exit Polls Prediction

Exit polls released ahead of the vote counting day suggest a potential Congress victory, with projections showing the party winning between 49 to 55 seats in the 90-member Assembly. This would place the party comfortably past the majority mark of 46 seats needed to form the government.

The BJP, according to these exit polls, is expected to face significant setbacks, potentially securing only 30 to 32 seats, significantly lower than the 40 seats it won in the 2019 Assembly elections. Despite these challenges, BJP leaders remain optimistic about defying predictions, relying on a combination of loyal supporters and independent candidates.

Challenges for BJP

The BJP, which formed the government in 2019 through a post-poll alliance with the JJP and seven independent MLAs, is struggling with the fallout from the breakup of its coalition. The JJP withdrew from the alliance ahead of the 2023 elections, and the BJP is now under pressure to maintain its influence amid growing discontent among voters.

In addition to anti-incumbency, the party is also grappling with internal infighting and the perception that it has failed to address key issues such as unemployment and the grievances of farmers following the contentious farm laws that were repealed in late 2021.

Top Contenders for Chief Minister

If the Congress emerges victorious, Bhupinder Singh Hooda is the most prominent contender for the Chief Minister’s post. Hooda, 77, has previously served as Haryana’s Chief Minister from 2005 to 2014 and led the Congress campaign in this election. His strong leadership and electoral experience make him the front-runner, but the party’s high command will have the final say in selecting the Chief Minister.

Another name in contention within Congress is Kumari Selja, a Dalit leader and former Union Minister, known for her proximity to the Gandhis. Additionally, Udai Bhan, the Haryana Congress chief and a close Hooda ally, is also considered a contender for the top post.

On the BJP side, current Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, who replaced Manohar Lal Khattar earlier this year, is expected to retain his position if the party manages to secure a majority. However, senior BJP leader Anil Vij, who has been vocal about his aspirations, could also emerge as a strong candidate for the chief ministerial role, should the party win.

Historical Context: BJP’s Previous Wins

In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP secured 40 seats, just six short of the majority mark. The party formed the government through a post-poll alliance with the JJP and independents. This time around, however, the JJP has pulled out of the alliance, significantly reducing the BJP’s chances of a repeat victory.

Manohar Lal Khattar, who was the face of the BJP in both the 2014 and 2019 elections, is now serving as a Union Minister, and the current Chief Minister, Nayab Singh Saini, is tasked with leading the party’s electoral efforts in 2023.

Congress Gains Momentum

If the exit polls are accurate, the Congress is likely to regain power in Haryana after ten years. Led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the party has campaigned on promises of addressing unemployment, improving rural welfare, and reversing some of the BJP’s controversial policies. The Congress’ strong electoral performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it won five of Haryana’s ten parliamentary seats, has further fueled optimism within the party ranks.

Key Takeaways

• Exit polls predict a Congress win, with the party expected to secure 49 to 55 seats, regaining power after a decade.
• The BJP faces significant challenges, including anti-incumbency, internal divisions, and fallout from the farmers’ protest, potentially reducing its tally to 30 to 32 seats.
• Bhupinder Singh Hooda is the leading candidate for the Congress’ Chief Minister, but others such as Kumari Selja and Udai Bhan may also be considered.
• On the BJP side, Nayab Singh Saini is the frontrunner for the Chief Minister post, but senior leader Anil Vij has also expressed interest.

As the counting of votes begins, all eyes are on Haryana’s political landscape. A Congress victory would mark a significant shift in the state’s governance after ten years of BJP rule, while a BJP win would defy the exit poll predictions and secure the party’s third consecutive term. Regardless of the outcome, the results of these elections will have long-lasting implications for the political future of Haryana.