The growth rate in the current financial year to be 6.3%, even lower than the NSO estimate

New Delhi| SBI claims that the economic growth rate in the current financial year 2024-25 may be even lower than the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimate at around 6.3 per cent. NSO has predicted the GDP growth rate to be at a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25 just a day earlier. The difference between the estimates of RBI and NSO has always been in the range of 0.20-0.30 per cent, SBI said in its research report ‘EcoRap’. Therefore, the estimate of 6.4 per cent for the current financial year is reasonable. The growth rate over this period, however, could remain at 6.3 per cent with a downward trend. RBI has estimated the growth rate to be 6.6%.

If tax receipts increased as per budget estimates and government expenditure decreased, the fiscal deficit will be 4.9 per cent in the current financial year. If the government sticks to the fiscal deficit target of 16.1 lakh crore, it will remain at five per cent.

The report notes that the first advance estimates of GDP reflect a sluggish overall demand in 2024-25. Positive contributing components, however, include government consumption, which increased by 8.5 per cent in terms of current prices. Exports have also increased by eight percent.