IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall, above-normal heatwaves in June
Citizens of Guwahati passing through rain affected Pandu road during incessant monsoon rainfall in Guwahati, the capital city of Assam in India on Monday,3rd June 2024. With the arrival of monsoon in northeast India, Guwahati being the gateway city is also affected due to incessant rainfall, water logging and landslides around city.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall across the country during the June-September 2026 season, while warning of above-normal heatwave conditions in several states during June.
In its updated long-range monsoon outlook, the IMD said the country is likely to receive seasonal rainfall amounting to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4 per cent. This places the monsoon in the “below normal” category for the 2026 season.
The weather agency said below-normal rainfall is likely over Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India, and the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which includes most rain-fed agricultural regions. However, Northeast India is expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
According to the IMD, below-normal seasonal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country, except some areas in Northwest and Northeast India, eastern parts of the south peninsula, adjoining east-central regions, and isolated pockets of East India, where normal to above-normal rainfall may occur.
For June 2026, the IMD forecast rainfall below 92 per cent of the LPA for the country as a whole. Most regions are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the month, except parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, the south peninsula, and isolated areas of Central India, where rainfall could remain normal to above normal.
The IMD also warned of above-normal temperatures across much of the country during June. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over most regions, while minimum temperatures are also likely to stay above normal in many parts of India.
Above-normal heatwave days are expected in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh, along with isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. Rajasthan and Jharkhand, however, are likely to experience below-normal heatwave days.
The weather office said the increased likelihood of heatwave conditions could significantly affect public health, water availability, electricity demand, and essential services. Vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, outdoor workers, and people with existing health conditions, may face heightened risks due to prolonged exposure to extreme heat.
The IMD advised state governments and district administrations to strengthen preparedness measures, including ensuring the availability of cooling shelters, safe drinking water, health surveillance systems, and emergency response mechanisms.
On the global climate front, the IMD noted that neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently transitioning towards El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate model forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season, which could influence rainfall distribution over India.
Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and are expected to continue throughout the monsoon season.
The IMD said it will issue its forecast for July rainfall in the last week of June 2026.
The department added that it continues to provide weekly extended-range forecasts and daily short- to medium-range weather updates through its operational forecasting systems to support preparedness and response planning across sectors.
